Likely Democratic candidates include Lt. Gov Sally Pedersen and State Representative Ed Fallon (neither has declared, however).

Likely Republican candidates include U.S. Rep Jim Nussle (Iowa's 1st CD) and possibly lawyer/lobbyist Doug Gross, who lost badly to Vilsack in 2002. If Nussle gets in it could clear the decks, otherwise some Republicans in the state legislature will likely run.

Vilsack was the first Democrat elected governor of Iowa for 30 years. I would say the 2006 race leans Republican, especially if Nussle is the nominee.

Vermont-- Now that D's control both the House and Senate, they can pin down some votes on Douglas, who talks a good game, but is all repug. Some veto's will line up a strong candidate mandate.

Ohio-- Springer, if he runs, cause I'll be working his campaign, lol. Also, Strickland might run. Blackwell is going to run for the R's rightwing lot, could be a big opportunity to winover the moderate Republicans.

California-- I hope Reiner runs, but D's are terrified by Arnold's high ratings.

Minnesota-- Pawlenty is weak, he could be knocked off; not sure by who though.

All in all, lots of races, should be the ones to watch in 2006.

Also, MA lost 3 Rep. incumbents Nov 2 which was attributed to state hatred of Bush. And Romney's been tied pretty closely to Bush's coattails.

The biggest question is who emerges as the Dem. candidate. Lots of big names in the mix, but no clear leader yet.

As a native New Yorker, I'd love to see my home state get bluer.

My understanding wrt Pennsylvania is that Rendell should be pretty safe.  He's wildly popular here in Philly, but he seems to be generally pretty popular throughout the state.  I'd be surprised if anyone big ran against him.

Because of this, and the poor economy in OH, the open seat is not a long-shot for the Dems.  I'd still say it leans R, but if our candidate is the better one, we might pull it off.

Three major candidates look to be facing off for the Republican nomination:

1. Sec. of State Ken Blackwell - The notorious SOS who was for provisional ballots before he was against them.  A very conservative African-American, he has been the first AA to ever hold statewide office in Ohio.  He's come out as a strong conservative and is hoping the arch-conservatives of OH can put aside their racial bigotries to vote for him in the primary.  He's somewhat charismatic and could spell trouble for the Dems and state if nominated.
   
2. Attorney General Jim Petro - Portraying himself as the more moderate choice against Blackwell, at least on social issues, Petro is coming out strongly for "cutting government waste" and reforming a "Depression-era" tax system in Ohio.
   
3. State Auditor Betty Montgomery - Don't know much about her because she has been mostly standing aside while Blackwell & Petro have already fired the first shots at each other earlier this year.  She has been leading or tied with Blackwell in the early, early polls.

1. Rep. Ted Strickland - Represents the rural Applachian district along the Ohio River in eastern & southern Ohio.  What you would expect from a Dem in such an area, pro-coal, pro-union, etc.  May be able to connect with rural voters.  Undeclared candidate.
   
2. Rep. Sherrod Brown - Popular Congressman from Northeast Ohio.  Seems to hold on to true Dem values rather than Republican-lite.  Has been expected to run for statewide office at some point, but he'd have to give up his safe seat.  Could be a strong candidate in the Cleveland area, but can he make the case statewide?  Undeclared.
   
3. Mayor Mike Coleman - Popular mayor of Columbus, the state's largest city.  A pretty cautious politician, but did endorse Wes Clark in the primaries.  He will only run if he thinks he can win it.  May energize the black vote.  Undeclared.
   

Big money will be put into this race.  Napolitano has good approval ratings, but we know that the Republicans will find a way to tarnish that.

hank

Carole Keeton McClelland Rylander Strayhorn (Cougar Mellencamp), state comptroller and mother of W press secretary Scottie, has openly feuded with Perry over the budget and other nits she thought needed picking. She's had eyes on Austin longer than KBH has.

And outgoing Commerce Secretary Don Evans is also rumored to be lining up a run.

The Democrats have no shortage of qualified candidates (though none who have been on a statewide ballot) due to the DeLay-redistricting purge of Congressmen. Chris Bell, Jim Turner, Martin Frost, and Charlie Stenholm (but probably not Max Sandlin nor Nick Lampson) could all harbor gubernatorial aspirations; any of them could also run for KBH's vacant Senate seat, or Lieutenant Governor (where the real power in state government lies), or the comptroller slot being vacated by Strayhorn...

The primaries in both parties two years hence will be crowded and interesting.

There are rumors about a couple of powerful Democratic state legislators running on the D side, and of NV-2 Congressman Jim Gibbons running for the Rs.

A good Democratic candidate can definately win, especially with an open seat.  Definately worth keeping an eye on.

Republicans...

Charlie Crist, State Attorney General...  Crist has basically been running his campaign for Governor since he took office as AG by going after soft targets that are popular with voters (phone rate hikes, for example).

Tom Gallagher, State Insurance Commissioner...

Katherine Harris, House Rep...  I don't believe it, but there have been some reports that she may run.

Those are the three major players that seem to have put out feelers thus far, but I suspect there will be many more.

Democrats...
Betty Castor, she has not put out any feelers that I know, but her name recognition in the state is great.

Janet Reno, she's been quiet since her run in 2002.  I doubt we'll see her run in 2006.

Beyond Castor and Reno, unfortunately, the cast of characters is fairly thin.  

The Republicans own the state legislature by a wide margin.  I don't expect to see anyone from that group run for Governor.

Republicans also control many of the major municipal governments, but there are a few bright spots...  

Tampa Mayor, Pam Iorio
Orlando Mayor, Buddy Dyer (I don't expect a run from him)

There is also the possibility that one of our Dem Representatives might run, but I have no information on them.

In summary, unless a strong Dem candidate emerges...  we will likely see Charlie Crist in the governor's mansion.  As much as it pains me... this state is leaning Republican right now, if a Dem wants to win, he or she is going to have to start laying the groundwork yesterday.

Other than raising money to defeat them, Baldacci has failed to have a meaningful reaction to THREE statewide referendums which divided the State over the last tweleve months regarding the crushing burden of property tax and the excessive spending by municipalities.  

The Republicans would have to come up with a pretty good candidate to defeat the former congressman and state legislator.  2002 Nominee Peter Cianchette is making noise again, but Democrats should be worried about Lumber Tzar Kevin Hancock (in the Olympia Snowe/Lincoln Chafee model of Republican).  Moreover, there are some rumors of intra-party challege from the left for Baldacci...

Even consideraing all of this, it would be difficult, from my perspective, for the Republicans to win back the governor's mansion.

Democrats are planning on fighting this pretty hard, and it will help that we'll have a strong fight for Nelson at the same time.  The only well known candidate so far is Matt Conneally, he lost this year for congress in the NE 1st.  He didn't do too badly, but he did lose.  

There were two problems with this years election.

First, in the last few weeks of the campaign, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) spent $300,000.  That doesn't seem like much in most states, but in Vermont, that's huge.  To top it off, they did this in defiance of Vermont law by not first registering as a PAC, claiming they talked to someone at the Secretary of State's office and were told they were allowed to.  

OK, given the margin, our loss can't be entirely blamed on that ad campaign.

Second, and more important, Douglas is incredibly effective at taking credit for what other people do while doing almost nothing himself.  The result is that he comes off, at worst, as innocuous.  I didn't get it until I met him in person for the first time, and I realized who he reminded me of,,, our Governor is none other then  Les Nessman, the newsman from WKRP in Cincinnati.  He's  your uncle who dresses well and behaves like a sophistacate despite being a complete failure.  Although he's done absolutely nothing to improve Vermont, he's done little harm in the short term that most people see, though in the long run, his policies are potentialy devistating.  I have to admit, it's hard to paint him as a bad guy, despite his total lack of charisma,,, he's sort of hard to hate if you don't seperate his ribbon-cuttings and press releases from his actual policies.  We didn't convince enough voters to look beyond the 30 second local news clips, and he won.

The good news is, he's inlikely to be running for re-election.  Word is that Jim Jeffords will not be seeking re-election, and Douglas will be seeking his seat.  Word also has it that he will be going against the beloved curmodgeon Bernie Sanders for that seat.

This leaves Lt. Governor Brian Dubie as the most likely (at this point, only viable) Republican candidate for Governor.  Dubie, we can beat, and, rest assured, we are already working on it.